Forecasters Say Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois Will Probably Dodge the Summer’s Big Disaster

2026 Has Been Mild So Far

When I wrote this article last year, I started by talking about how we were in a La Niña year and the weather was pretty wild. We had a historic flood, ice storm, and lots of severe weather. But thankfully, this year has been really mild.

We've had a couple of severe weather threat days, but they turned out to be a lot of nothing. Twenty-twenty-six is shaping up to be a pretty easygoing year, weather-wise. Let's hope Mother Nature isn't busy planning something catastrophic.

And now, AccuWeather has released its prediction about the long, hot summer and the potential for widespread fires.

2026 US Wildfire Predictions

In an article released this month, AccuWeather long-range forecasters predicted 5.5 million to 8 million acres burned this year, above the 5,131,474 acres burned in 2025 and in line with the historical average of 7,000,514 acres.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center 2025 report, there were about 77,850 wildfires reported nationally in 2025 and more than 5 million acres burned. That was up from 64,897 U.S. wildfires reported in 2024 and 56,580 reported in 2023.

In 2024, reported wildfires consumed 8,924,884 acres, compared to 2,693,910 acres in 2023.

In 2025, the research group Climate Central reported $115 billion in damage from weather and climate disasters in the U.S., which claimed 276 lives.

Spring Wildfire Risks Already Rising

Though we usually think of California when we think of wildfires, AccuWeather predicted the biggest threat this year is in the West and into the Northwest.

"The broadest and most persistent wildfire risk is expected from Arizona and New Mexico into Utah, Nevada, Idaho, western Montana and parts of the Northwest."

The western Plains are also largely at risk due to long stretches of strong winds and low humidity. Our friends to the south in Florida could also experience wildfire risk if drought conditions linger.

What About the Tri-State?

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What About the Tri-State?

In Kentucky, Indiana, and Illinois, we deal with a lot of natural disasters, and while wildfires aren’t as common as, say, tornadoes, they’re still a threat.

According to the University of Kentucky, we experience two fire seasons: one in the early spring (mid-February to early May) and another in late fall (October through December). This is when we tend to see drought conditions, as well as an uptick in camping.

This past March, crews battled a massive wildfire at Land Between the Lakes. And the current drought conditions don't help the situation.

The forecasters at Accuweather said that "the Midwest and Northeast are expected to have relatively low wildfire activity this summer due to frequent rainfall, higher humidity and fully developed vegetation." And the maps from the National Interagency Fire Center tell the same story.

Humans Spark Most Wildfires

And interestingly enough, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association, 90% of all wildfires in the United States are caused by humans.

“The combination of rising temperatures, worsening droughts, and changing precipitation patterns continues to increase the risk of wildfires in America,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

Longterm Damage

In an article on Climate.gov about billion-dollar climate disasters, government experts said there are several reasons for these natural disasters. "A major driver of increased costs of extreme weather is the increase in population and material wealth over the last several decades." They go on to say that there are several potential explanations for these trends, including increases in exposure (more assets at risk), increases in vulnerability (how much damage something like high winds can cause in a given area), and increases in the frequency and intensity of some types of extreme events due to human-caused climate change."

They also cited several possible explanations, including more assets at risk, increased vulnerability, and increases in the frequency and intensity of some extreme events tied to human-caused climate change.

Another concern is wildfire smoke. According to AccuWeather, winds can carry smoke across the continent, reducing air quality hundreds or even thousands of miles away. Wildfire smoke can also affect temperatures.

The American Veterinary Medical Association says animals with cardiovascular or respiratory disease are especially at risk. If there is a high amount of wildfire smoke in your area, call your vet immediately if your animals experience these symptoms:

• Coughing or gagging
• Difficulty breathing, including open-mouth breathing and increased noise when breathing
• Eye irritation and excessive watering
• Inflammation of the throat or mouth
• Nasal discharge
• Asthma-like symptoms
• Increased breathing rate
• Fatigue or weakness
• Disorientation or stumbling
• Reduced appetite and/or thirst

What Can We Do to Prevent Wildfires?

When it all boils down, humans are at the root of many of these problems. As an individual, it can feel overwhelming and nearly impossible to make a dent in reversing climate change.

But since more than 90% of wildfires are started by humans, it is also possible to reduce many of them through prevention.

As Smokey Bear said, "Only YOU can prevent forest fires."

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