What Are the Chances Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois Will See a Major Earthquake in the Next 100 Years

What Is an Earthquake?

Let’s go back to 7th grade science class and talk about something we probably don’t think about enough. Earthquakes.

An earthquake happens when built-up energy in the Earth’s crust causes two giant slabs of rock suddenly slip past one another. The surface where they slip is called a fault or fault plane.

That rumble you feel is energy radiating outward as seismic waves after those massive slabs shift. Those waves cause the ground to shake, which can damage buildings and infrastructure.

Fun fact. Even though earthquakes can crack roads and split the ground, entire cities do not fall into giant holes like they do in the movies. Still, the results can be catastrophic.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone and the Tri-State

You might think that if you live in the tri-state you are safe. California is the state that needs to worry. But according to amuedge.com, the scariest earthquake zone is not in California. It is the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which runs through parts of Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri. Oh, and Indiana, if you think you are safe, think again. We are close enough to be in the danger zone.

We do not think about earthquakes much around here because strong ones are not common. The quakes we feel are usually small. For example, Indiana University reports that at 11:06 PM EDT on August 9, 2025, a magnitude 2.6 earthquake occurred near Cynthiana, Indiana. Residents in Evansville and New Harmony reported weak shaking. The maximum perceived intensity on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale was IV, which is considered light.

In fact, EarthquakeTrack.com reports there have been 167 earthquakes in the past 365 days in or around Kentucky. Most are so minor that residents either do not feel them or only notice a slight shake.

The Historic 1811 to 1812 Earthquakes

Back in the winter of 1811 to 1812, a series of earthquakes along the New Madrid Seismic Zone destroyed settlements and dramatically changed the landscape.

Because of the soft, sandy soil in the Midwest, shockwaves liquefied subsurface sediment over a large area and triggered massive landslides. They even caused parts of the Mississippi River to temporarily flow backward. Imagine that happening today!

"The three largest 1811-1812 earthquakes destroyed several settlements along the Mississippi River, caused minor structural damage as far away as Cincinnati, Ohio, and St. Louis, Missouri, and were felt as far away as Hartford, Connecticut, Charleston, South Carolina, and New Orleans, Louisiana. In the New Madrid region, the earthquakes dramatically affected the landscape. They caused bank failures along the Mississippi River, landslides along Chickasaw Bluffs in Kentucky and Tennessee, and uplift and subsidence of large tracts of land in the Mississippi River floodplain. One such uplift related to faulting near New Madrid, Missouri, temporarily forced the Mississippi River to flow backwards." -usgs.gov

One of the quakes is believed to have reached the 8.0 magnitude range, with another in the high 7s. According to Michigan Technological University, an 8.0 or greater earthquake can totally destroy communities near the epicenter.

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The Cost of a Major Earthquake

Though it's hard to know exactly what a catastrophic earthquake in the Midwest would cost, Missouri's DNR reported that a 2004 FEMA report estimated a 7.7 earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone cost $296 billion dollars across the region and left 730,000 people displaced from their homes. Using an inflation calculator, the same earthquake would cost around $508 billion today. Yikes.

My Own Earthquake Moment

I remember being in a mild earthquake in the early 2000s. I had no idea what was happening. I was at my parents’ house and ran outside to look at the roof because it felt like a giant flying dinosaur had landed on it. In that moment, a prehistoric creature made more sense than the ground rumbling under my feet.

Now, as someone who works on the sixth floor of a high-rise in the Ohio River Valley, I sometimes wonder how likely we are to experience something major here.

What the Experts Say

A few years ago, I called the United States Geological Survey and spoke with geophysicist John Bellini. He explained that earthquakes happen all the time in the New Madrid area which covers parts of seven American states: Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. We just do not feel most of them.

In fact, the New Madrid Seismic Zone is the most active seismic area in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains.

According to John, though they can't predict or forecast earthquakes, historically where there has been one major earthquake, it is likely that another could happen. Where would it be felt the most? Who knows... but here's a map of past earthquake epicenters in the area.

Should the Ohio River Valley Be Concerned

The tri-state has never been the epicenter of a truly massive earthquake. But we live in a region that has experienced powerful ones in the past. That means it is possible again.

We do not know when. We do not know exactly where. But here's a map of epicenters in the Midwest over the past several years. We are in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.

We do have a nifty map called the National Seismic Hazard Model (2023). The map displays the likelihood of damaging earthquakes in the United States over the next 100 years.

Here's what the NSHM says about the Tri-State:

According to the NSHM, millions in the region could experience anything from a little shaking to a catastrophic earthquake. But, the risk in the tri-state is a bit lower than our friends to the south.

Moderate risk: The NSHM shows a 25-50% chance of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in this zone within the next 50 years. The further south you go in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone, the higher the risk is for a catastrophic earthquake.

That is why experts recommend being prepared. The USGS offers detailed guidance on how to prepare and what to do before, during, and after an earthquake.

It may not be something we think about every day. But when the ground decides to remind us who is really in charge, it is better to be ready than surprised.

Here's more from the USGS about preparing for and what to do in the event of an earthquake.