Bobby’s Predictions for UFC 188

The UFC Heavyweight belt is on the line this Saturday night during UFC 188. See my preview and predictions below, and check out fights on pay-per-view.

Cain Valasquez (Champ) vs. Fabricio Werdum (#1-Interim Champ)

The main event of the night will see the heavyweight title unified. Current champ Cain Valasquez, who's been sidelined by injury, returns to face interim champ Fabricio Werdum.

It's hard to go against Valasquez in this fight. The only reason to doubt him is because he hasn't fought in 20 months. You never know how a fighter will come back after that long of a layoff. Before his injury, Valasquez was nearly unstoppable, aside from a flukey KO loss to Junior Dos Santos back in 2011 (he's beaten JDS twice since then). But you can't overlook Werdum. He is the #1 contender and the interim champ. He has won 8 of his last 10 fights, including a submission of the legendary Fedor Emelianenko (5 years ago). Werdum has great jiu jitsu - 47% of his wins have been by submission. But Valasquez is a great wrestler and rarely gets taken down. And when he's on his feet, he's won 85% of his fights by KO/TKO.

Prediction:  Werdum has only been knocked out once in his career, but I do see Valasquez winning this fight by TKO/ref stoppage.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez

Melendez was once a lightweight contender fighting for the belt. He's trying to get back to a title fight. Alvarez, although an MMA veteran, is only fighting for the second time in the UFC. Alvarez has long been courted by the UFC, but lost is Octagon debut to Donald Cerrone. Both men are coming off of losses and have something to prove. Is Melendez still a title contender? Can Alvarez live up to the hype?

Prediction:  I see this fight going the distance. Most predictions I've seen have been for Melendez, but I'm gonna pick Alvarez for the upset win by decision

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt

Here we have a young up-and-comer (Gastelum) facing a tested veteran (Marquardt). Despite his recent split-decision loss to Tyron Woodley, Kelvin Gastelum has looked really good since winning season 17 of The Ultimate Fighter. He's gone 5-1 in the UFC in the last two years. Nate Marquardt is a different story though. He has lost 6 of his last 10 fights (3 of the last 4) and might need a win to stay in the UFC.

Prediction:  Gastelum has shown that he can win in a variety of ways, but I see him winning this fight by decision.

Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa

I'll be honest - I don't know much about these two guys. Rodriguez is a local boy from Mexico and has a record of 4-1. He won his UFC debut this past November. Rosa has a 10-1 record and makes his third appearance in the Octagon.

Prediction:  I'm gonna throw a dart at the board on this one and pick Charles Rosa to win by submission.

Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill

Both of these strawweight (115 lbs) fighters appeared on the all-female cast of The Ultimate Fighter season 20. This fight comes down to styles. I think Torres will try to get the fight to the ground, and Hill will want to keep it standing. If Hill can't defend the takedown, I think it will be a boring 3-round decision.

Prediction:  I have no data to back this up (Hill is only 2-0), but I think Angela Hill is gonna win this fight. I think she'll use kickboxing background to get a KO/TKO.